RESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th, 2020. Although Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th, 2020, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this country. We assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima, Peru. We estimated the reproduction number, R, during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th, 2020. We also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in place. Prior to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima, the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.9 (95%CI: 0.9,1.0) and the reproduction number at 2.3 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5). Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the government. While the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate, highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region.
RESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th, 2020. Although Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th, 2020, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this country. We assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima, Peru. We estimated the reproduction number, R, during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th, 2020. We also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in place. Prior to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima, the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.96 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.0) and the reproduction number at 2.3 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5). Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the government. While the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate, highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission has long been recognized as an important occupational hazard for healthcare workers (HCWs). HCWs have a 5.8% annual risk of exposure and three times greater risk of developing active TB than the general population. METHODS: We conducted an observational cross-sectional study between September 2014 and March 2015 among HCWs in a high-burden TB setting in Lima to estimate the prevalence of positive Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) and to investigate factors associated with a positive TST. RESULTS: Two hundred forty participants were included in the analysis; TST was administered to 190 (79.2%) while the rest were exempt due to a previous positive TST result, history of TB, or test refusal. A positive TST result was found among 56.2% of participants to whom the TST was applied (95% CI: 49.22-63.55%). When considering those who had a previous positive TST result and those with a history of TB, the prevalence of a positive TST result was 64.3% (95% CI: 57.8-70.3%). No significant differences were observed between clinical/paramedical and administrative staff in the health center. The use of N95 masks during work hours was reported by 142 (69.9%) participants. Prevalence ratios (PR) show that workers with more than 120 months as a HCW were 1.44 times more likely to be TST positive. The multivariate analysis found that HCWs with over 10 years of service were 1.52 times more likely to be TST positive. CONCLUSION: This study supports previous reports that TB infection is an occupational hazard for HCWs. Prevention of TB transmission through control measures, as well as timely diagnosis of LTBI in this particular high-risk group, is critical for individual and public health.
